skoro bych rekl, ze to zadani je spatne. vetsi smysl dava tohle:
Cure A is guaranteed to save exactly 200 people. Cure B has a 1/3
probability of saving 600, but a 2/3 probability of saving no one. The fate of
hairlines and future generations is in your hands. Which do you pick?
Ok, mark your answer and let’s reimagine the scenario. Same setup,
everyone is going to die without a cure, but this time if you use Cure C it is
certain exactly 400 people will die. Cure D has a 1/3 probability of killing no
one, but a 2/3 probability killing 600. Which one?
When Tversky and Kahneman presented these two scenarios to doctors, minus the
bit about baldness, the majority chose Cure A in the first scenario and Cure D
in the second. The catch is both situations are the same, just framed
differently.
http://youarenotsosmart.com/…ost-fallacy/